Three Horizons Framework
Also known as: Three Horizons Model, 3H Framework, Three Horizons Mapping, H1-H2-H3 Pathways
The Three Horizons framework is a structured way of thinking about transformative change by mapping three overlapping curves of activity across time. Developed within the International Futures Forum and given its definitive articulation by Bill Sharpe, Anthony Hodgson, Graham Leicester and colleagues in their 2016 Ecology and Society paper, it distinguishes the first horizon (H1), the dominant present system that is declining in its fit with a changing world; the third horizon (H3), an emerging and viable future pattern that is currently marginal but growing; and the second horizon (H2), the turbulent zone of transition in which entrepreneurial innovations and experiments compete, some carrying the system toward H3 and others merely propping up H1. Rather than predicting a single future, the framework is a pathways practice that helps groups see the present as a contested landscape of patterns and locate their own intentions and actions within it.
Key highlights
- Provides an intuitive, visual shared language that lets diverse stakeholders reason together about long-term, transformative change.
- Distinguishes innovations that genuinely seed the future (H2-plus) from those that merely prop up the incumbent system (H2-minus).
- Holds present, transition, and future in a single picture, connecting strategic vision to concrete present action.
- Assigns complementary roles — manager, entrepreneur, visionary — so different actors see their stake and avoid talking past each other.
Intuition
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How it works
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When to use it
Use the Three Horizons framework when a group needs to make sense of transformative, long-run change and to align around how present actions relate to a desired future, rather than to produce a point forecast. It is especially valuable for systemic challenges — sustainability transitions, organisational renewal, sectoral disruption — where the dominant system is visibly under strain, where promising but marginal alternatives exist, and where innovation is contested and could cut either way. The framework excels as a facilitated, participatory sense-making and dialogue tool that surfaces assumptions and gives diverse stakeholders a common language. It is less suited to situations demanding quantified probabilities, short-term operational planning, or precise prediction, and its value depends on the quality of the group's judgement, so it is best paired with evidence on trends and weak signals rather than used as a substitute for them.
Strengths & limitations
- Provides an intuitive, visual shared language that lets diverse stakeholders reason together about long-term, transformative change.
- Distinguishes innovations that genuinely seed the future (H2-plus) from those that merely prop up the incumbent system (H2-minus).
- Holds present, transition, and future in a single picture, connecting strategic vision to concrete present action.
- Assigns complementary roles — manager, entrepreneur, visionary — so different actors see their stake and avoid talking past each other.
- Relies on qualitative judgement and facilitation skill, so outputs are only as good as the participants' insight and honesty.
- Offers no probabilities or quantitative rigour, making it weak where decisions require measured likelihoods or formal forecasts.
- The clean three-curve picture can oversimplify systems with multiple competing futures or non-linear, discontinuous change.
- The desirability framing around a preferred H3 can import bias, presenting one favoured future as inevitable rather than contested.
Common pitfalls
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Applications
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Frequently asked
Are the three horizons three points in time?
No. Although the framework is drawn on a timeline, the three horizons are not sequential dates but three qualitatively different patterns that all exist in the present. H1 is the currently dominant system, H3 is the emerging future already visible in pockets, and H2 is the contested transition space between them. The curves overlap precisely because today's world simultaneously contains the declining established order, fringe experiments pointing to a different future, and disruptive innovations whose direction is still being decided.
What is the difference between H2-plus and H2-minus?
Second-horizon innovations are inherently ambiguous, and Sharpe and colleagues distinguish two roles they can play. H2-plus innovations are stepping-stones that genuinely nurture and grow the third horizon, helping the new pattern take root. H2-minus innovations, by contrast, are captured or absorbed by the incumbent system and used to extend the life of the declining first horizon. The same technology or initiative can be either, depending on how it is deployed, which is why mapping the direction each H2 activity tilts is central to the practice.
Is Three Horizons a forecasting method?
Not in the predictive sense. It does not assign probabilities or attempt to say what will happen. Instead it is a sense-making and pathways practice that helps a group see the present as a landscape of competing patterns and decide how to act toward a preferred future. Its outputs are shared maps, conversations, and strategic orientations rather than forecasts, which is why it is usually facilitated participatively and paired with trend evidence rather than used to generate quantitative predictions.
Sources
- 1.Sharpe, B., Hodgson, A., Leicester, G., Lyon, A., & Fazey, I. (2016). Three horizons: a pathways practice for transformation. Ecology and Society, 21(2), 47.
- 2.Bishop, P., Hines, A., & Collins, T. (2007). The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques. Foresight, 9(1), 5-25.
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Cite this page
ScholarGate. (2026, June 23). Three Horizons Framework. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/futures-foresight-studies/three-horizons-framework