مقایسهٔ روش‌ها

	مدل نمایی GARCH (EGARCH)	مدل آریما (میانگین متحرک یکپارچه خودرگرسیو)	مدل خودرگرسیون شرطی تعمیم‌یافته ناهمسانی (GARCH)	TBATS
حوزه	اقتصادسنجی	اقتصادسنجی	اقتصادسنجی	اقتصادسنجی
خانواده	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
سال پیدایش	1991	2015	1986	2011
پدیدآور	Nelson	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Tim Bollerslev	De Livera, Hyndman & Snyder
نوع	Conditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant)	Univariate time-series model	Conditional volatility model	Exponential smoothing state space model
منبع بنیادین	Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307-327.	De Livera, A. M., Hyndman, R. J. & Snyder, R. D. (2011). Forecasting Time Series with Complex Seasonal Patterns Using Exponential Smoothing. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 106(496), 1513-1527.
نام‌های دیگر	exponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCH	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	GARCH(1,1), generalized ARCH, conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli	trigonometric exponential smoothing, multiple seasonal exponential smoothing, complex seasonal exponential smoothing, TBATS — Çoklu Mevsimsel Üstel Düzleştirme
مرتبط	4	5	5	3
خلاصه	EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance.	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	GARCH is an econometric model for the time-varying volatility of financial time series, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986 as a generalisation of Engle's ARCH model. It treats the conditional variance as a function of past squared shocks and past variances, capturing the volatility clustering seen in returns.	TBATS is an innovations state space forecasting model, introduced by De Livera, Hyndman and Snyder (2011), that combines a Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors and trigonometric (Fourier) seasonal terms. It is built to handle continuous time series with several nested seasonal cycles at once — for example hourly data that also repeats daily, weekly and yearly.