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SARIMA mudel×ARIMA mudel (autoregressiivne integreeritud libisev keskmine)×ARMA mudel (autoregressiivne liikuv keskmine)×Autoregressiivne mudel (AR)×
ValdkondÖkonomeetriaÖkonomeetriaÖkonomeetriaÖkonomeetria
PerekondRegression modelRegression modelRegression modelRegression model
Tekkeaasta1970 (first edition); 1976 (revised)197019701970s (popularised 1976)
LoojaBox, Jenkins, and ReinselGeorge Box and Gwilym JenkinsGeorge E. P. Box and Gwilym M. JenkinsGeorge E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
TüüpSeasonal time series modelTime series forecasting modelTime series modelTime series model
AlgallikasBox, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day. link ↗Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day. link ↗Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043
RööpnimetusedSARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, ARIMA with seasonal componentARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)ARMA, Box-Jenkins model, autoregressive moving average, AR(p)MA(q)AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process
Seotud5656
KokkuvõteSARIMA extends ARIMA by adding seasonal autoregressive and moving-average operators to capture repeating patterns at fixed intervals — such as monthly, quarterly, or annual cycles. Denoted SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)s, it is the standard workhorse for univariate seasonal time series forecasting in econometrics, economics, and official statistics.The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.The ARMA(p,q) model describes a stationary time series as a combination of two components: an autoregressive part that regresses the current value on its own past p values, and a moving average part that accounts for past q error terms. It is the foundational framework of the Box-Jenkins methodology for univariate time series modelling and short-run forecasting.An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series.
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ScholarGateVõrdle meetodeid: SARIMA model · ARIMA model · ARMA model · Autoregressive model. Loetud 2026-06-18 aadressilt https://scholargate.app/et/compare