Võrdle meetodeid

	Markovi režiimivahetuse mudel (MS-AR / MS-VAR)	ARIMA (autoregressiivne integreeritud liikuv keskmine) mudel	Generaliseeritud Autoregressiivne Tingimuslik Heteroskedastilisus (GARCH)	Tavaline vähimruutude (OLS) regressioon
Valdkond	Ökonomeetria	Ökonomeetria	Ökonomeetria	Ökonomeetria
Perekond	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Tekkeaasta	1989	2015	1986	2019
Looja	Hamilton (1989); Kim & Nelson (1999)	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Tim Bollerslev	Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares
Tüüp	Regime-switching time series model	Univariate time-series model	Conditional volatility model	Linear regression
Algallikas	Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307-327.	Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860
Rööpnimetused	regime-switching model, Markov-switching autoregression, MS-AR, MS-VAR	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	GARCH(1,1), generalized ARCH, conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli	ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu
Seotud	5	5	5	5
Kokkuvõte	The Markov regime-switching model lets the parameters of a time series change probabilistically across hidden regimes governed by a Markov chain. Introduced by Hamilton (1989) and developed further by Kim and Nelson (1999), it automatically detects business-cycle phases such as expansions and contractions.	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	GARCH is an econometric model for the time-varying volatility of financial time series, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986 as a generalisation of Engle's ARCH model. It treats the conditional variance as a function of past squared shocks and past variances, capturing the volatility clustering seen in returns.	Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).