Hypothesis test
贝叶斯功效分析（保证值）
贝叶斯功效分析——也称为保证值（assurance）——是一种样本量确定方法，它用效应量先验分布上的概率加权平均值来替代频率主义的功效（power）概念。该方法由 Spiegelhalter 和 Freedman (1986) 首次正式提出，并由 O'Hagan、Stevens 和 Campbell (2005) 进一步发展，它回答了这样一个问题：鉴于我们对真实效应当前的不确定性，多大的样本量能让我们获得统计学显著结果的整体概率较高？
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来源
- O'Hagan, A., Stevens, J.W. & Campbell, M.J. (2005). Assurance in Clinical Trial Design. Pharmaceutical Statistics, 4(3), 187–201. DOI: 10.1002/pst.175 ↗
- Spiegelhalter, D.J. & Freedman, L.S. (1986). A Predictive Approach to Selecting the Size of a Clinical Trial, Based on Subjective Clinical Opinion. Statistics in Medicine, 5(1), 1–13. DOI: 10.1002/sim.4780050103 ↗
如何引用本页
ScholarGate. (2026, June 1). Bayesian Power Analysis (Assurance / Bayesian Sample Size Determination). ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/zh/statistics/bayesian-power-analysis
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