方法对比
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| 多目标情景分析× | 政策情景分析× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 仿真 | 仿真 |
| 方法族 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 起源年份≠ | 2013 (integrated framework); scenario analysis roots: 1967 | 1967–1990s |
| 提出者≠ | Stewart, French & Rios (integration formalized); scenario analysis roots: Kahn & Wiener (1967) | Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. (seminal); adapted for policy by RAND Corporation and OECD |
| 类型≠ | Structured qualitative-quantitative hybrid | Qualitative-quantitative hybrid scenario method |
| 开创性文献≠ | Stewart, T. J., French, S., & Rios, J. (2013). Integrating multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning: Review and extension. Omega, 41(4), 679-688. DOI ↗ | Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146. DOI ↗ |
| 别名 | MOSA, Multi-criteria scenario analysis, Multi-objective futures analysis, MO-scenario analysis | PSA, Policy Scenarios, Policy Impact Scenario Analysis, Counterfactual Policy Analysis |
| 相关≠ | 4 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | Multi-objective Scenario Analysis (MOSA) is a structured method that constructs a set of plausible future scenarios and evaluates each scenario against multiple competing objectives or criteria. By making trade-offs explicit across objectives and across possible futures, it supports strategic decisions where uncertainty about the future and conflicts between goals co-exist. It is widely applied in energy planning, climate adaptation, public policy, and corporate strategy. | Policy Scenario Analysis is a structured method for evaluating how different policy interventions perform across a range of plausible future states. By pairing specific policy levers with alternative scenarios, analysts can assess robustness, trade-offs, and unintended consequences of policy choices before implementation — making it a cornerstone of evidence-based policy design in fields from climate to public health. |
| ScholarGate数据集 ↗ |
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