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时间变化参数自回归模型 (TVP-AR)×随机波动率模型 (Heston)×
领域计量经济学金融学
方法族Regression modelRegression model
起源年份1976–20051993
提出者Cooley & Prescott (1976); further developed by Kim & Nelson (1999) and Cogley & Sargent (2001, 2005)Steven L. Heston
类型Time-series model with drifting coefficientsContinuous-time stochastic volatility model
开创性文献Cogley, T., & Sargent, T. J. (2005). Drifts and volatilities: Monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII US. Review of Economic Dynamics, 8(2), 262-302. DOI ↗Heston, S. L. (1993). A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options. Review of Financial Studies, 6(2), 327-343. DOI ↗
别名TVP-AR, time-varying AR, state-space AR with drifting coefficients, random-walk coefficient ARHeston model, SV model, continuous-time stochastic volatility, Stokastik Volatilite Modeli (Heston, SV)
相关45
摘要The Time-Varying Parameter Autoregressive (TVP-AR) model extends the classical AR model by allowing its autoregressive coefficients to drift over time, typically as a random walk. Cast as a state-space system, the model captures gradual structural change in the dynamics of a univariate time series without imposing a fixed break date.The stochastic volatility model is a continuous-time option-pricing and risk framework in which volatility follows its own random process rather than staying constant. The Heston model, introduced by Steven Heston in 1993, gives the variance a mean-reverting square-root (CIR) dynamic and yields a closed-form option price; it is the continuous-time counterpart of GARCH.
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ScholarGate方法对比: Time-varying parameter AR model · Stochastic Volatility Model. 于 2026-06-18 检索自 https://scholargate.app/zh/compare