方法对比

	空间反事实影响评估 (SCIE)	因果推断的工具变量（IV）方法
领域	因果推断	卫生经济学
方法族	Regression model	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2010s	1990s (modern applications)
提出者	Cerqua, Pellegrini, and regional-science scholars building on counterfactual econometrics	Angrist & Pischke (applied econometrics); rooted in econometric theory
类型	Quasi-experimental / causal inference	Method
开创性文献	Cerqua, A., & Pellegrini, G. (2014). Do subsidies to private capital boost firms' growth? A multiple regression discontinuity design approach. Journal of Public Economics, 109, 114-126.	Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J. S. (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
别名	SCIE, spatial CIE, place-based counterfactual evaluation, regional counterfactual analysis	IV, two-stage least squares, TSLS, causal estimation
相关	5	3
摘要	Spatial Counterfactual Impact Evaluation (SCIE) is a family of quasi-experimental methods that estimate the causal effect of geographically targeted policies — such as EU Cohesion Funds, enterprise zones, or place-based subsidies — by constructing a spatial counterfactual: what outcomes the treated region would have experienced without the intervention, inferred from comparable untreated regions or from discontinuities at policy boundaries.	Instrumental variables (IV) is an econometric method to estimate causal effects when treatment or exposure is not randomly assigned and confounding is severe or unmeasured. IV relies on a third variable (instrument) that influences treatment but does not directly affect the outcome, allowing researchers to isolate the causal effect from the noise of confounding. Developed extensively in econometrics (Angrist & Pischke, 1990s–2000s), IV methods are increasingly used in health economics and health services research to leverage natural experiments and policy changes.