方法对比

	教育研究中因果关系的敏感性分析	中断时间序列（ITS）分析
领域	因果推断	因果推断
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	1983–2002	2002
提出者	Paul R. Rosenbaum (formal framework); applied in education research by Briggs and others	Wagner, Soumerai, Zhang & Ross-Degnan (segmented regression); Bernal, Cummins & Gasparrini (tutorial)
类型	Causal robustness / bias assessment	Quasi-experimental segmented regression
开创性文献	Rosenbaum, P. R. (2002). Observational Studies (2nd ed.). Springer. ISBN: 978-0387989679	Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355.
别名	Rosenbaum sensitivity analysis, hidden-bias sensitivity analysis, causal sensitivity analysis, SA for causal education studies	ITS analysis, segmented regression of time series, Kesintili Zaman Serisi (ITS) Analizi
相关	6	5
摘要	Sensitivity analysis for causality in education research tests how robust a quasi-experimental finding is to unmeasured confounding. Rather than assuming all bias has been removed, it quantifies how large a hidden bias would need to be to overturn a causal conclusion — a critical safeguard when randomisation is impossible, which is common in educational settings.	Interrupted Time Series analysis is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the effect of a single, well-dated intervention by comparing the trajectory of an outcome before and after it occurs. Formalised as segmented regression by Wagner and colleagues (2002) and popularised as a public-health evaluation tutorial by Bernal, Cummins and Gasparrini (2017), it separates the intervention's impact into a change in level and a change in slope.