方法对比
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| 政策情景系统动力学× | 政策情景分析× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 仿真 | 仿真 |
| 方法族 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 起源年份≠ | 1960s–1990s | 1967–1990s |
| 提出者≠ | Forrester, J. W. (system dynamics); scenario integration formalized by Sterman and others | Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. (seminal); adapted for policy by RAND Corporation and OECD |
| 类型≠ | Simulation-based policy analysis | Qualitative-quantitative hybrid scenario method |
| 开创性文献≠ | Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 9780072389159 | Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146. DOI ↗ |
| 别名 | PSSD, Policy SD Simulation, Scenario-Based System Dynamics, Policy Systems Modeling | PSA, Policy Scenarios, Policy Impact Scenario Analysis, Counterfactual Policy Analysis |
| 相关 | 5 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | Policy Scenario System Dynamics combines system dynamics modeling with structured scenario analysis to evaluate how different policy interventions affect complex, feedback-driven systems over time. By running multiple policy scenarios through a calibrated stock-and-flow model, analysts can compare long-run outcomes, identify leverage points, and anticipate unintended consequences before real-world implementation. | Policy Scenario Analysis is a structured method for evaluating how different policy interventions perform across a range of plausible future states. By pairing specific policy levers with alternative scenarios, analysts can assess robustness, trade-offs, and unintended consequences of policy choices before implementation — making it a cornerstone of evidence-based policy design in fields from climate to public health. |
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