方法对比
并排查看您选择的方法；存在差异的行会高亮显示。
| 政策情景离散事件仿真× | 政策情景系统动力学× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 仿真 | 仿真 |
| 方法族 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 起源年份 | 1960s–1990s | 1960s–1990s |
| 提出者≠ | Tocher, K. D. and Gordon, G. (early DES); policy scenario extension emerged through operations research and health policy modeling communities | Forrester, J. W. (system dynamics); scenario integration formalized by Sterman and others |
| 类型≠ | Simulation-based policy evaluation | Simulation-based policy analysis |
| 开创性文献≠ | Law, A. M. (2015). Simulation Modeling and Analysis (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education. ISBN: 9780073401324 | Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 9780072389159 |
| 别名 | Policy DES, Scenario-based DES, Policy simulation DES, DES policy analysis | PSSD, Policy SD Simulation, Scenario-Based System Dynamics, Policy Systems Modeling |
| 相关 | 5 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | Policy Scenario Discrete-Event Simulation combines the event-by-event fidelity of Discrete-Event Simulation with systematic policy scenario analysis to evaluate how different interventions, regulations, or resource allocations change system performance. By running multiple well-defined policy scenarios through the same DES model, analysts can compare outcomes — throughput, waiting times, costs — across alternatives before real-world implementation. | Policy Scenario System Dynamics combines system dynamics modeling with structured scenario analysis to evaluate how different policy interventions affect complex, feedback-driven systems over time. By running multiple policy scenarios through a calibrated stock-and-flow model, analysts can compare long-run outcomes, identify leverage points, and anticipate unintended consequences before real-world implementation. |
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