方法对比
并排查看您选择的方法；存在差异的行会高亮显示。
| 政策情景离散事件仿真× | 政策情景分析× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 仿真 | 仿真 |
| 方法族 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 起源年份≠ | 1960s–1990s | 1967–1990s |
| 提出者≠ | Tocher, K. D. and Gordon, G. (early DES); policy scenario extension emerged through operations research and health policy modeling communities | Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. (seminal); adapted for policy by RAND Corporation and OECD |
| 类型≠ | Simulation-based policy evaluation | Qualitative-quantitative hybrid scenario method |
| 开创性文献≠ | Law, A. M. (2015). Simulation Modeling and Analysis (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education. ISBN: 9780073401324 | Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146. DOI ↗ |
| 别名 | Policy DES, Scenario-based DES, Policy simulation DES, DES policy analysis | PSA, Policy Scenarios, Policy Impact Scenario Analysis, Counterfactual Policy Analysis |
| 相关 | 5 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | Policy Scenario Discrete-Event Simulation combines the event-by-event fidelity of Discrete-Event Simulation with systematic policy scenario analysis to evaluate how different interventions, regulations, or resource allocations change system performance. By running multiple well-defined policy scenarios through the same DES model, analysts can compare outcomes — throughput, waiting times, costs — across alternatives before real-world implementation. | Policy Scenario Analysis is a structured method for evaluating how different policy interventions perform across a range of plausible future states. By pairing specific policy levers with alternative scenarios, analysts can assess robustness, trade-offs, and unintended consequences of policy choices before implementation — making it a cornerstone of evidence-based policy design in fields from climate to public health. |
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