方法对比
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| 马尔可夫状态转换模型 (MS-AR / MS-VAR)× | 门限向量自回归（TVAR）和光滑转换向量自回归（STVAR）× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 计量经济学 | 计量经济学 |
| 方法族 | Regression model | Regression model |
| 起源年份≠ | 1989 | 1998 |
| 提出者≠ | Hamilton (1989); Kim & Nelson (1999) | Tsay (multivariate threshold modelling) |
| 类型≠ | Regime-switching time series model | Nonlinear multivariate time-series model |
| 开创性文献≠ | Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384. DOI ↗ | Tsay, R. S. (1998). Testing and Modeling Multivariate Threshold Models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 93(443), 1188-1202. DOI ↗ |
| 别名 | regime-switching model, Markov-switching autoregression, MS-AR, MS-VAR | TVAR, STVAR, regime-switching VAR, threshold VAR |
| 相关 | 5 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | The Markov regime-switching model lets the parameters of a time series change probabilistically across hidden regimes governed by a Markov chain. Introduced by Hamilton (1989) and developed further by Kim and Nelson (1999), it automatically detects business-cycle phases such as expansions and contractions. | Threshold VAR and Smooth-Transition VAR are nonlinear multivariate time-series models in which the coefficients of a vector autoregression switch between regimes according to a threshold variable. Building on Tsay's 1998 treatment of multivariate threshold models, they capture different dynamic structures across phases such as the business cycle, financial crises, or policy differences. |
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