方法对比

	不精确概率	贝叶斯推断	证据的Dempster-Shafer理论
领域	软计算	统计学	软计算
方法族	Bayesian methods	Bayesian methods	Machine learning
起源年份	1991	1763	1976
提出者	Peter Walley	Thomas Bayes; Pierre-Simon Laplace	Arthur P. Dempster & Glenn Shafer
类型	Set-valued probability model	Probabilistic inference paradigm	Uncertainty calculus for combining evidence
开创性文献	Walley, P. (1991). Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities. Chapman & Hall. ISBN: 978-0-412-28660-5	Bayes, T. (1763). An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 53, 370–418.	Dempster, A. P. (1967). Upper and lower probabilities induced by a multivalued mapping. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 38(2), 325–339.
别名	Lower-Upper Probability, Robust Bayesian Analysis, Credal Set Theory, Belirsiz Olasılık	Bayes inference, Bayesian statistics, Bayesian updating, posterior inference	evidence theory, belief functions, evidential reasoning, Dempster-Shafer kanıt teorisi
相关	3	3	4
摘要	Imprecise probability is a generalization of standard probability theory that represents epistemic uncertainty through sets of probability measures, called credal sets, rather than a single precise distribution. Introduced systematically by Peter Walley in his 1991 monograph, the framework characterizes beliefs via lower and upper probabilities (or previsions), bracketing the range of plausible probability assignments when available information is insufficient to determine a unique measure.	Bayesian inference is a statistical paradigm in which probability represents degrees of belief rather than long-run frequencies. It encodes prior knowledge about parameters in a prior distribution, combines that prior with the likelihood of observed data via Bayes' theorem, and produces a posterior distribution that quantifies updated uncertainty. The foundational theorem was published posthumously by Thomas Bayes in 1763 and subsequently systematized by Pierre-Simon Laplace in his 1812 Théorie analytique des probabilités.	Dempster-Shafer theory is a mathematical framework for reasoning under uncertainty that generalizes Bayesian probability by representing ignorance explicitly. Instead of forcing a single probability on each hypothesis, it assigns belief mass to sets of hypotheses and derives a belief-plausibility interval, and it provides Dempster's rule for fusing evidence from multiple independent sources. Developed from Arthur Dempster's 1967 work and Glenn Shafer's 1976 monograph, it underpins evidential reasoning and sensor/decision fusion.