方法对比

	Hiemstra-Jones 非线性 Granger 因果检验	收敛交叉映射 (CCM)	格兰杰因果检验
领域	计量经济学	因果推断	计量经济学
方法族	Hypothesis test	Machine learning	Regression model
起源年份	1994	2012	1969
提出者	Craig Hiemstra & Jonathan Jones	George Sugihara et al.	Clive W. J. Granger
类型	Nonparametric hypothesis test	Nonlinear time-series causality test	Time-series predictive causality test
开创性文献	Hiemstra, C., & Jones, J. D. (1994). Testing for linear and nonlinear Granger causality in the stock price-volume relation. The Journal of Finance, 49(5), 1639–1664.	Sugihara, G., et al. (2012). Detecting causality in complex ecosystems. Science, 338(6106), 496–500.	Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
别名	HJ Nonlinear Causality Test, Hiemstra-Jones Test, Nonlinear Granger Causality (Hiemstra-Jones), HJ Nedensellik Testi	CCM, Cross-Convergent Mapping, Empirical Dynamic Modelling Causality, Yakınsak Çapraz Haritalama	Granger causality test, Granger non-causality test, predictive causality test, Granger Nedensellik Testi
相关	3	3	5
摘要	The Hiemstra-Jones test, introduced in 1994, is a nonparametric procedure for detecting nonlinear causal relationships between two time series after removing their linear interdependencies. Developed in the context of stock price and trading volume dynamics, it extends the standard linear Granger causality framework by using correlation integral statistics to detect predictability arising from nonlinear mechanisms that linear VAR models cannot capture.	Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) is a nonlinear, state-space method for detecting causality between time-series variables embedded in a shared dynamical system. Introduced by George Sugihara and colleagues in their landmark 2012 Science paper, CCM exploits Takens' embedding theorem: if variable X causally influences Y, the historical record of Y contains enough information to recover the states of X. Causality is confirmed when cross-map skill improves—converges—as the time-series library grows longer.	The Granger causality test, introduced by Clive W. J. Granger in 1969, assesses whether the past values of one time series help predict another beyond what the latter's own past already explains. It defines causality in a strictly predictive sense rather than as a structural or physical cause.