方法对比

	全球向量自回归模型	门限面板向量自回归模型
领域	计量经济学	计量经济学
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	2004	1996
提出者	Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner	Bruce Hansen and colleagues
类型	International system model	Nonlinear panel model
开创性文献	Pesaran, M. H., Schuermann, T., & Weiner, S. M. (2004). Modeling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 22(2), 129-162.	Hansen, B. E. (1996). Inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 12(3), 386-414.
别名	GVAR, Multi-country VAR	Panel-VAR with regime switching
相关	3	3
摘要	Global VAR (GVAR) is a large-scale macroeconomic modeling framework linking multiple countries (or regions) via trade and financial channels, allowing shocks in one country to propagate through the global system. Introduced by Pesaran et al. (2004), it solves the curse of dimensionality in international VAR models by estimating country-specific VARs conditional on foreign variables, then solving a system linking all countries. This approach is invaluable for analyzing global spillovers and international policy coordination.	The Threshold Panel VAR extends the standard vector autoregression framework to accommodate regime-switching behavior where relationships change when a threshold variable crosses a critical level. Introduced by Hansen (1996) and applied to panels by Caner and Hansen (2001), it allows different dynamic relationships across regimes (e.g., expansions versus recessions) while exploiting the cross-sectional dimension of panel data. This nonlinear framework captures state-dependent policy effects and economic mechanisms.