方法对比

	Foresight Scenario Method	Patent Analysis	Technology Delphi
领域	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1995	1994	1975
提出者	Paul Schoemaker, drawing on Herman Kahn and the Shell/intuitive-logics tradition	Francis Narin (patent bibliometrics) and the patent-analytics community	Helmer & Dalkey (RAND); national applications by NISTEP (Japan) and Cuhls (Germany)
类型	Structured future-construction process	Document-based technological-intelligence process	Iterative structured expert-survey process
开创性文献	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.	Narin, F. (1994). Patent bibliometrics. Scientometrics, 30(1), 147-155.	Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. ISBN: 9780201042948
别名	Scenario planning, Intuitive-logics scenarios, Scenario building	Patent analytics, Patent bibliometrics, Patent landscaping	Technology Delphi survey, Foresight Delphi, National Delphi forecast
相关	4	4	4
摘要	The scenario method constructs a small set of internally consistent, plausible stories about how the future might unfold, built from the key driving forces and critical uncertainties facing a decision. Rather than forecasting one expected future, it deliberately develops several contrasting futures so that strategies can be tested against a range of possibilities and decision-makers can rehearse responses to what might otherwise be surprises.	Patent analysis, or patanalytics, mines the documents and metadata in patent databases to generate technological intelligence. Because patents are structured, dated, classified, and citation-linked records of inventive activity, analysing patent counts, citations, classification codes, applicants, and text reveals who is innovating where, in which technologies, how fields connect, and how the technological landscape is shifting—evidence that feeds competitive intelligence, R&D strategy, and foresight.	The technology Delphi is a large-scale, multi-round expert survey used to forecast the timing, importance, and feasibility of future technological developments. Built on the classic Delphi principles of anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback, and statistical aggregation, it elicits judgements from hundreds or thousands of experts on a structured list of technology statements and converges them, round by round, into a collective forecast that informs national and organisational science and technology priorities.