方法对比
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| 离散选择模拟× | 个体模拟× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 仿真 | 仿真 |
| 方法族 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 起源年份≠ | 1974 (McFadden's Nobel-cited logit); simulation extensions throughout 1990s–2000s | 1957 |
| 提出者≠ | Daniel McFadden (random utility theory); Kenneth Train (simulation methods) | Guy Orcutt (concept, 1957); modern tax-transfer frameworks developed through EUROMOD and related projects |
| 类型≠ | Discrete choice modelling with Monte Carlo simulation | Policy simulation / computational social science |
| 开创性文献≠ | Train, K.E. (2009). Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press. DOI ↗ | O'Donoghue, C. (Ed.) (2014). Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling. Emerald. DOI ↗ |
| 别名≠ | stated preference simulation, SP simulation, revealed preference modelling, Ayrık Seçim Simülasyonu (Stated Preference / SP Simulation) | Mikrosimülasyon, micro-simulation, policy microsimulation |
| 相关 | 5 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | Discrete choice simulation is a behavioural modelling method — grounded in random utility theory formalised by Daniel McFadden in the 1970s and extended to simulation-based estimation by Kenneth Train — that estimates how individuals choose among mutually exclusive alternatives and then uses those estimated preference parameters to forecast how choice shares would shift under hypothetical policy or market scenarios. It is the dominant quantitative tool in transport demand analysis, health economics, environmental valuation, and marketing research. | Microsimulation is a computational method that simulates policy effects by operating directly on a population of individual micro-units — households, firms, patients — and applying rules to each unit according to its own demographic, economic, and behavioural characteristics. Developed conceptually by Guy Orcutt in 1957, it has become the standard tool for evaluating tax reform, pension systems, and health policy before implementation. |
| ScholarGate数据集 ↗ |
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