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领域质性问题结构化
方法族Process / pipelineProcess / pipeline
起源年份19632005
提出者Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer (RAND Corporation)John Friend & Allen Hickling
类型Structured iterative expert-elicitation processIterative group-based problem structuring and decision process
开创性文献Dalkey, N. & Helmer, O. (1963). An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458-467. DOI ↗Friend, J., & Hickling, A. (2005). Planning Under Pressure: The Strategic Choice Approach (3rd ed.). Elsevier. ISBN: 978-0-7506-6373-2
别名Delphi Yöntemi, Delphi technique, expert consensus methodSCA, Planning Under Pressure, Stratejik Seçim Yaklaşımı, Interactive Strategic Planning
相关52
摘要The Delphi method is a structured, iterative survey technique developed by Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer at the RAND Corporation in 1963 for eliciting and converging expert opinion on complex topics where empirical data are unavailable or insufficient. It collects independent judgements from a geographically dispersed expert panel over multiple anonymous rounds, feeding aggregated results back to participants after each round so they can revise their views in light of the group's collective position.The Strategic Choice Approach (SCA) is an interactive, workshop-based problem structuring method developed by John Friend and Allen Hickling, first published in 1987 and refined in the definitive third edition of Planning Under Pressure (2005). SCA helps groups of planners and stakeholders manage interconnected decisions under uncertainty by explicitly mapping decision areas, option combinations, and sources of uncertainty before committing to action.
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ScholarGate方法对比: Delphi Method · Strategic Choice Approach. 于 2026-06-18 检索自 https://scholargate.app/zh/compare