方法对比
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| 德尔菲法× | 政策情景分析× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域≠ | 质性 | 仿真 |
| 方法族 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 起源年份≠ | 1963 | 1967–1990s |
| 提出者≠ | Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer (RAND Corporation) | Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. (seminal); adapted for policy by RAND Corporation and OECD |
| 类型≠ | Structured iterative expert-elicitation process | Qualitative-quantitative hybrid scenario method |
| 开创性文献≠ | Dalkey, N. & Helmer, O. (1963). An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458-467. DOI ↗ | Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146. DOI ↗ |
| 别名≠ | Delphi Yöntemi, Delphi technique, expert consensus method | PSA, Policy Scenarios, Policy Impact Scenario Analysis, Counterfactual Policy Analysis |
| 相关 | 5 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | The Delphi method is a structured, iterative survey technique developed by Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer at the RAND Corporation in 1963 for eliciting and converging expert opinion on complex topics where empirical data are unavailable or insufficient. It collects independent judgements from a geographically dispersed expert panel over multiple anonymous rounds, feeding aggregated results back to participants after each round so they can revise their views in light of the group's collective position. | Policy Scenario Analysis is a structured method for evaluating how different policy interventions perform across a range of plausible future states. By pairing specific policy levers with alternative scenarios, analysts can assess robustness, trade-offs, and unintended consequences of policy choices before implementation — making it a cornerstone of evidence-based policy design in fields from climate to public health. |
| ScholarGate数据集 ↗ |
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