方法对比

	退化模型	故障树分析 (FTA)	威布尔参数生存回归
领域	可靠性	可靠性	生存分析
方法族	Regression model	Process / pipeline	Survival analysis
起源年份	1998	1981	1951
提出者	Meeker, Escobar & Lu	Vesely et al. (US NRC Fault Tree Handbook)	Waloddi Weibull
类型	Stochastic degradation path model	Deductive top-down failure analysis	Fully parametric survival regression model
开创性文献	Meeker, W. Q., Escobar, L. A., & Lu, C. J. (1998). Accelerated degradation tests: modeling and analysis. Technometrics, 40(2), 89–99.	Vesely, W. E., Goldberg, F. F., Roberts, N. H., & Haasl, D. F. (1981). Fault Tree Handbook (NUREG-0492). U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.	Kalbfleisch, J. D. & Prentice, R. L. (2002). The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data (2nd ed.). Wiley.
别名	Accelerated Degradation Testing, Degradation Path Models, Performance Degradation Analysis, Bozunma Modelleri	FTA, Fault Tree Method, Top-Down Reliability Analysis, Hata Ağacı Analizi	weibull aft model, weibull survival model, parametric survival regression, Weibull Regresyonu — Parametrik Hayatta Kalma
相关	3	3	4
摘要	Degradation models estimate product lifetime by tracking measurable performance characteristics—such as crack length, light output, or insulation resistance—over time rather than waiting for outright failure. Introduced in rigorous form by Meeker, Escobar, and Lu (1998), these models fit a stochastic degradation path to repeated measurements and define failure as the first time the characteristic crosses a predetermined threshold, enabling reliable lifetime inference from accelerated test data with very few or no observed failures.	Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a top-down, deductive reliability method that begins with an undesired top-level failure event and systematically traces backward through chains of contributing causes using Boolean logic gates (AND, OR). First formalized by Watson at Bell Telephone Laboratories in 1961 and later standardized by Vesely, Goldberg, Roberts, and Haasl in the landmark 1981 NRC Fault Tree Handbook, FTA has become a cornerstone of quantitative risk assessment in nuclear, aerospace, and industrial safety engineering.	Weibull regression is a fully parametric survival model, formalised by Kalbfleisch and Prentice, that assumes survival times follow a Weibull distribution. A shape parameter controls whether the hazard increases, decreases, or remains constant over time, while covariates shift the scale of the distribution to express how predictors affect survival.