方法对比

	贝叶斯排队模拟	离散事件仿真 (DES)
领域	仿真	仿真
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1994	1960s (formalized); modern computational form from 1970s onward
提出者	Armero, C. & Bayarri, M. J.	Banks, Carson, Nelson & Nicol (textbook lineage); foundational work by Tocher & Conway (1960s)
类型	Bayesian inference + stochastic simulation	Stochastic process simulation
开创性文献	Armero, C., & Bayarri, M. J. (1994). Bayesian prediction in M/M/1 queues. Queueing Systems, 15(1–4), 401–417.	Banks, J., Carson, J.S., Nelson, B.L. & Nicol, D.M. (2010). Discrete-Event System Simulation (5th ed.). Pearson. ISBN: 978-0136062127
别名	BQS, Bayesian Queue Simulation, Bayesian Stochastic Queueing, Bayesian Queuing Analysis	DES, event-driven simulation, Ayrık Olay Simülasyonu (DES)
相关	6	4
摘要	Bayesian Queueing Simulation combines Bayesian statistical inference with stochastic queueing simulation to model waiting-line systems under parameter uncertainty. Instead of treating arrival and service rates as fixed known values, it places prior distributions over them, updates these with observed data to obtain posteriors, and propagates the resulting parameter uncertainty through repeated simulation runs to produce probabilistic predictions of system performance metrics such as queue length, waiting time, and server utilisation.	Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) is a computational modeling paradigm in which the state of a system changes only at a countable sequence of points in time — the events. Between events nothing changes, so the simulation clock jumps directly from one event to the next. Formalized through the foundational textbooks of Banks, Carson, Nelson and Nicol and of Law in the 1960s–2000s, DES has become the standard tool for analyzing queuing systems, healthcare patient flows, manufacturing lines, and logistics networks where entities move through resources over time.