方法对比

	Arellano-Bond GMM 估计量	因果推断的工具变量（IV）方法
领域	计量经济学	卫生经济学
方法族	Regression model	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1991	1990s (modern applications)
提出者	Manuel Arellano and Stephen Bond	Angrist & Pischke (applied econometrics); rooted in econometric theory
类型	GMM estimator for dynamic panel data	Method
开创性文献	Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297.	Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J. S. (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
别名	AB-GMM, Difference GMM, first-difference GMM, Arellano-Bond estimator	IV, two-stage least squares, TSLS, causal estimation
相关	5	3
摘要	The Arellano-Bond GMM estimator is the standard approach for dynamic panel data models in which the lagged dependent variable appears as a regressor. By first-differencing to remove fixed effects and using deeper lags as instruments, it yields consistent estimates even when the error is serially correlated and regressors are endogenous.	Instrumental variables (IV) is an econometric method to estimate causal effects when treatment or exposure is not randomly assigned and confounding is severe or unmeasured. IV relies on a third variable (instrument) that influences treatment but does not directly affect the outcome, allowing researchers to isolate the causal effect from the noise of confounding. Developed extensively in econometrics (Angrist & Pischke, 1990s–2000s), IV methods are increasingly used in health economics and health services research to leverage natural experiments and policy changes.