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领域临床研究因果推断
方法族Process / pipelineRegression model
起源年份1990s-2000s2002
提出者Stephen Pocock, Christopher Jennison, and statistical methodologists; FDA formalized guidance 2019Wagner, Soumerai, Zhang & Ross-Degnan (segmented regression); Bernal, Cummins & Gasparrini (tutorial)
类型Research DesignQuasi-experimental segmented regression
开创性文献Pocock, S. J. (2005). Current issues in the design and interpretation of clinical trials. BMJ, 330(7500), 1118–1121. link ↗Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355. DOI ↗
别名adaptive trial, adaptive design, response-adaptive randomization, RARITS analysis, segmented regression of time series, Kesintili Zaman Serisi (ITS) Analizi
相关15
摘要An adaptive trial design allows pre-specified modifications to the trial based on interim data—such as sample size re-estimation, stopping for futility or efficacy, dropping ineffective arms, or shifting randomization ratios toward better-performing treatments. Developed systematically in the 1990s–2000s by statisticians like Pocock and Jennison, and formalized by the FDA in 2019, adaptive designs accelerate drug development, reduce exposure to ineffective treatments, and improve efficiency without inflating false-positive rates when properly executed.Interrupted Time Series analysis is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the effect of a single, well-dated intervention by comparing the trajectory of an outcome before and after it occurs. Formalised as segmented regression by Wagner and colleagues (2002) and popularised as a public-health evaluation tutorial by Bernal, Cummins and Gasparrini (2017), it separates the intervention's impact into a change in level and a change in slope.
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ScholarGate方法对比: Adaptive Trial Design · Interrupted Time Series. 于 2026-06-19 检索自 https://scholargate.app/zh/compare