MCDMProbabilistic Loss Metric
Brier Score
The Brier score measures the mean squared difference between predicted probabilities and actual binary outcomes. It is a simple, interpretable metric for evaluating the accuracy of probabilistic predictions, particularly in weather forecasting and medical diagnosis.
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Sources
- Brier, G. W. (1950). Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Monthly Weather Review, 78(1), 1-3. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VFEIOT>2.0.CO;2 ↗
- Murphy, A. H. (1973). A new vector partition of the probability score. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 12(4), 595-600. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0450(1973)012<0595:ANVPOT>2.0.CO;2 ↗