เปรียบเทียบวิธี

	แบบจำลอง SARIMA การแตกหักเชิงโครงสร้าง	การทดสอบการเปลี่ยนแปลงโครงสร้างพหุคูณของ Bai-Perron	แบบจำลอง SARIMA
สาขาวิชา	เศรษฐมิติ	เศรษฐมิติ	เศรษฐมิติ
ตระกูล	Regression model	Hypothesis test	Regression model
ปีกำเนิด	1970s–1998	1998	1970 (first edition); 1976 (revised)
ผู้ริเริ่ม	Box & Jenkins (SARIMA); Bai & Perron (structural break detection)	Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron	Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel
ประเภท	Time series model with regime shifts	Sequential hypothesis test for multiple structural breaks	Seasonal time series model
แหล่งต้นตำรับ	Bai, J., & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica, 66(1), 47–78.	Bai, J., & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica, 66(1), 47–78.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744
ชื่อเรียกอื่น	SARIMA with structural breaks, break-augmented SARIMA, piecewise SARIMA, SARIMA-SB	Bai-Perron Multiple Break Test, Multiple Structural Change Test, Sequential Structural Break Test, Çoklu Yapısal Kırılma Testi	SARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, ARIMA with seasonal component
ที่เกี่ยวข้อง	3	2	5
สรุป	The Structural Break SARIMA model extends the classical Seasonal ARIMA framework by explicitly detecting and accommodating abrupt, permanent shifts in the level, trend, or seasonal pattern of a time series. Rather than forcing a single SARIMA specification across the entire sample, the model partitions the series at estimated breakpoints and fits separate SARIMA processes to each resulting segment, producing more accurate forecasts and reliable inference in the presence of regime changes.	The Bai-Perron test, introduced by Jushan Bai and Pierre Perron in their landmark 1998 Econometrica paper, is a least-squares-based procedure for detecting, estimating, and testing the number of structural breaks in a linear regression model estimated on time-series data. Unlike single-break tests, it simultaneously identifies multiple change-points in a sample, providing economists and empirical researchers with a rigorous, data-driven way to locate parameter instability across time.	SARIMA extends ARIMA by adding seasonal autoregressive and moving-average operators to capture repeating patterns at fixed intervals — such as monthly, quarterly, or annual cycles. Denoted SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)s, it is the standard workhorse for univariate seasonal time series forecasting in econometrics, economics, and official statistics.