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Model ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)×Dynamický faktorový model×Model vektorovej autoregresie (VAR)×
OdborEkonometriaEkonometriaEkonometria
RodinaRegression modelRegression modelRegression model
Rok vzniku201520022005
TvorcaBox & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)James Stock & Mark WatsonLütkepohl (textbook treatment); Sims (1980) macroeconometric tradition
TypUnivariate time-series modelLatent-factor time-series modelMultivariate time-series model
Pôvodný zdrojBox, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2002). Macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(2), 147–162. DOI ↗Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer. DOI ↗
Ďalšie názvyBox-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA ModeliDiffusion Index Model, Large-Scale Factor Model, Approximate Factor Model, Dinamik Faktör Modelivector autoregression, VAR, VAR Modeli (Vektör Otoregresyon), vektör otoregresyon
Príbuzné524
ZhrnutieARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).A Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) extracts a small number of latent common factors from a large panel of economic time series and uses those factors to forecast or nowcast a target variable. Formalized for macroeconomic forecasting by James Stock and Mark Watson in their 2002 Journal of Business & Economic Statistics paper, DFMs handle hundreds of indicators simultaneously while avoiding the curse of dimensionality that plagues traditional multivariate models.Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model that treats several interdependent series symmetrically, letting each variable depend on its own past values and the past values of all the others. It is the standard tool for capturing mutual causality and joint dynamics, developed in the modern multiple-time-series tradition treated by Lütkepohl (2005).
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ScholarGatePorovnať metódy: ARIMA · Dynamic Factor Model · VAR Model. Získané 2026-06-18 z https://scholargate.app/sk/compare