Сравнение методов
Просматривайте выбранные методы рядом; строки с различиями подсвечены.
| Модель векторной авторегрессии (VAR)× | Тест границ ARDL (Pesaran Bounds Test)× | Модель ARIMA (авторегрессионная интегрированная скользящая средняя)× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Область | Эконометрика | Эконометрика | Эконометрика |
| Семейство | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model |
| Год появления≠ | 2005 | 2001 | 2015 |
| Автор метода≠ | Lütkepohl (textbook treatment); Sims (1980) macroeconometric tradition | Pesaran, Shin & Smith | Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology) |
| Тип≠ | Multivariate time-series model | Cointegration test / Autoregressive distributed lag model | Univariate time-series model |
| Основополагающий источник≠ | Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer. DOI ↗ | Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. DOI ↗ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 |
| Другие названия≠ | vector autoregression, VAR, VAR Modeli (Vektör Otoregresyon), vektör otoregresyon | Pesaran bounds test, bounds testing approach, ARDL cointegration test, ARDL Sınır Testi (Pesaran Bounds Test) | Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli |
| Связанные≠ | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Сводка≠ | Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model that treats several interdependent series symmetrically, letting each variable depend on its own past values and the past values of all the others. It is the standard tool for capturing mutual causality and joint dynamics, developed in the modern multiple-time-series tradition treated by Lütkepohl (2005). | The ARDL bounds test is an autoregressive distributed lag method that tests for a cointegrating (long-run level) relationship between time series, introduced by Pesaran, Shin and Smith in 2001. Unlike the Johansen procedure, it remains valid whether the variables are I(0), I(1) or a mix of the two, and it is more reliable than Johansen in small samples of roughly 30 to 80 observations. | ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015). |
| ScholarGateНабор данных ↗ |
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