Сравнение методов
Просматривайте выбранные методы рядом; строки с различиями подсвечены.
| Модель Марковских переключений режимов (MS-AR / MS-VAR)× | Модель ARIMA (авторегрессионная интегрированная скользящая средняя)× | Экспоненциальный GARCH (EGARCH)× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Область | Эконометрика | Эконометрика | Эконометрика |
| Семейство | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model |
| Год появления≠ | 1989 | 2015 | 1991 |
| Автор метода≠ | Hamilton (1989); Kim & Nelson (1999) | Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology) | Nelson |
| Тип≠ | Regime-switching time series model | Univariate time-series model | Conditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant) |
| Основополагающий источник≠ | Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384. DOI ↗ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370. DOI ↗ |
| Другие названия≠ | regime-switching model, Markov-switching autoregression, MS-AR, MS-VAR | Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli | exponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCH |
| Связанные≠ | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Сводка≠ | The Markov regime-switching model lets the parameters of a time series change probabilistically across hidden regimes governed by a Markov chain. Introduced by Hamilton (1989) and developed further by Kim and Nelson (1999), it automatically detects business-cycle phases such as expansions and contractions. | ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015). | EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance. |
| ScholarGateНабор данных ↗ |
|
|
|