Compară metode

	Model SARIMA	Modelul ARMA (Autoregresiv Medie Mobilă)	Model Autoregresiv (AR)
Domeniu	Econometrie	Econometrie	Econometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Anul apariției	1970 (first edition); 1976 (revised)	1970	1970s (popularised 1976)
Autorul original	Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
Tip	Seasonal time series model	Time series model	Time series model
Sursa seminală	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043
Denumiri alternative	SARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, ARIMA with seasonal component	ARMA, Box-Jenkins model, autoregressive moving average, AR(p)MA(q)	AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process
Înrudite	5	5	6
Rezumat	SARIMA extends ARIMA by adding seasonal autoregressive and moving-average operators to capture repeating patterns at fixed intervals — such as monthly, quarterly, or annual cycles. Denoted SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)s, it is the standard workhorse for univariate seasonal time series forecasting in econometrics, economics, and official statistics.	The ARMA(p,q) model describes a stationary time series as a combination of two components: an autoregressive part that regresses the current value on its own past p values, and a moving average part that accounts for past q error terms. It is the foundational framework of the Box-Jenkins methodology for univariate time series modelling and short-run forecasting.	An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series.