Compară metode

	Modelul ARMA (Autoregresiv Medie Mobilă)	Model Autoregresiv (AR)
Domeniu	Econometrie	Econometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Anul apariției	1970	1970s (popularised 1976)
Autorul original	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
Tip	Time series model	Time series model
Sursa seminală	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043
Denumiri alternative	ARMA, Box-Jenkins model, autoregressive moving average, AR(p)MA(q)	AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process
Înrudite	5	6
Rezumat	The ARMA(p,q) model describes a stationary time series as a combination of two components: an autoregressive part that regresses the current value on its own past p values, and a moving average part that accounts for past q error terms. It is the foundational framework of the Box-Jenkins methodology for univariate time series modelling and short-run forecasting.	An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series.