Compară metode

	Modelul ARMA (Autoregresiv Medie Mobilă)	Model ARIMA (Autoregresiv Integrat Medie Mobilă)
Domeniu	Econometrie	Econometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Anul apariției	1970	1970
Autorul original	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins
Tip	Time series model	Time series forecasting model
Sursa seminală	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.
Denumiri alternative	ARMA, Box-Jenkins model, autoregressive moving average, AR(p)MA(q)	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)
Înrudite	5	6
Rezumat	The ARMA(p,q) model describes a stationary time series as a combination of two components: an autoregressive part that regresses the current value on its own past p values, and a moving average part that accounts for past q error terms. It is the foundational framework of the Box-Jenkins methodology for univariate time series modelling and short-run forecasting.	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.