Comparar métodos

	Modelo ARMA (Média Móvel Autorregressiva)	Modelo Autorregressivo (AR)
Área	Econometria	Econometria
Família	Regression model	Regression model
Ano de origem	1970	1970s (popularised 1976)
Autor original	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
Tipo	Time series model	Time series model
Fonte seminal	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043
Outros nomes	ARMA, Box-Jenkins model, autoregressive moving average, AR(p)MA(q)	AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process
Relacionados	5	6
Resumo	The ARMA(p,q) model describes a stationary time series as a combination of two components: an autoregressive part that regresses the current value on its own past p values, and a moving average part that accounts for past q error terms. It is the foundational framework of the Box-Jenkins methodology for univariate time series modelling and short-run forecasting.	An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series.