Porównaj metody

	Model Autoregresywny (AR)	Model średniej ruchomej (MA)	Model SARIMA
Dziedzina	Ekonometria	Ekonometria	Ekonometria
Rodzina	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Rok powstania	1970s (popularised 1976)	1970	1970 (first edition); 1976 (revised)
Twórca	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins	Box and Jenkins	Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel
Typ	Time series model	Linear time series model	Seasonal time series model
Źródło pierwotne	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744
Inne nazwy	AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process	MA model, MA(q) process, moving-average process, Box-Jenkins MA	SARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, ARIMA with seasonal component
Pokrewne	6	5	5
Podsumowanie	An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series.	The Moving Average model of order q — written MA(q) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear combination of the current and past random shocks (innovations). Unlike the AR model which uses lagged values of the series itself, the MA model uses lagged error terms, making it well-suited for capturing short-lived disturbances that dissipate over q periods.	SARIMA extends ARIMA by adding seasonal autoregressive and moving-average operators to capture repeating patterns at fixed intervals — such as monthly, quarterly, or annual cycles. Denoted SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)s, it is the standard workhorse for univariate seasonal time series forecasting in econometrics, economics, and official statistics.