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| GJR-GARCH (GARCH Asimetri)× | Model ARCH (Heteroskedastisitas Bersyarat Autoregresif)× | Model ARIMA (Autoregresif Bersepadu Purata Bergerak)× | Exponential GARCH (EGARCH)× | Model GARCH (Peramalan Volatiliti)× | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bidang | Ekonometrik | Ekonometrik | Ekonometrik | Ekonometrik | Ekonometrik |
| Keluarga | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model |
| Tahun asal≠ | 1993 | 1982 | 2015 | 1991 | 1986 |
| Pengasas≠ | Glosten, Jagannathan & Runkle (1993); Zakoian (1994) | Robert F. Engle | Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology) | Nelson | Tim Bollerslev |
| Jenis≠ | Asymmetric conditional volatility model | Conditional volatility model | Univariate time-series model | Conditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant) | Conditional volatility model |
| Sumber perintis≠ | Glosten, L. R., Jagannathan, R. & Runkle, D. E. (1993). On the Relation Between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks. The Journal of Finance, 48(5), 1779-1801. DOI ↗ | Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007. DOI ↗ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370. DOI ↗ | Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327. DOI ↗ |
| Alias≠ | asymmetric GARCH, leverage GARCH, TGARCH, GJR-GARCH — Asimetrik GARCH (Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle) | ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance model | Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli | exponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCH | GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini) |
| Berkaitan≠ | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Ringkasan≠ | GJR-GARCH is a variant of the GARCH conditional-volatility model that captures the asymmetric effect of negative shocks on volatility using an indicator variable. It was introduced by Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (1993), with a closely related threshold formulation by Zakoian (1994). | The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering. | ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015). | EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance. | The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series. |
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