Underdetermination of Theory
Underdetermination is the thesis that evidence cannot uniquely determine which scientific theory we should accept.
Definition
Underdetermination of theory by data is the claim that for any body of evidence there exist rival theories equally compatible with it, so that the evidence alone does not rationally compel acceptance of one theory over its competitors.
Scope
This topic covers the Duhem-Quine thesis on holistic testing, the distinction between contrastive and holist underdetermination, the notion of empirically equivalent rival theories, and its use in arguments against scientific realism, together with realist replies.
Core questions
- Can a hypothesis be tested in isolation from background assumptions?
- Are there always empirically equivalent rivals to any theory?
- Does underdetermination undermine the rationality of theory choice?
- What role does it play in arguments against scientific realism?
Key concepts
- Duhem-Quine thesis
- confirmational holism
- empirical equivalence
- auxiliary hypotheses
- ampliative underdetermination
Key theories
- Duhem-Quine holism
- Duhem and Quine argue that hypotheses face the tribunal of experience only as part of a larger body of theory, so a failed prediction never refutes a single hypothesis decisively.
- Empirical-equivalence underdetermination
- The thesis that for any theory there are rivals entailing the same observational consequences, leaving theory choice underdetermined by all possible data.
History
Duhem argued in 1906 that physical hypotheses cannot be tested singly; Quine generalized this into confirmational holism in 1951. Later writers distinguished holist from contrastive underdetermination, and Laudan and Leplin's 1991 critique challenged the inference from empirical equivalence to underdetermined theory choice.
Debates
- Does underdetermination defeat realism?
- Antirealists argue that empirically equivalent rivals make theory choice arbitrary, while Laudan and Leplin reply that empirical equivalence is neither stable nor sufficient for evidential equivalence.
Key figures
- Pierre Duhem
- W. V. O. Quine
- Larry Laudan
- Jarrett Leplin
Related topics
Seminal works
- duhem1906
- quine1951
- laudanleplin1991
Frequently asked questions
- How does underdetermination relate to the Duhem-Quine thesis?
- The Duhem-Quine thesis says hypotheses are tested only in bundles with auxiliary assumptions, so a recalcitrant observation can always be accommodated by revising some other part of the bundle. This holism is one route to the broader claim that evidence underdetermines theory.