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Technology Roadmapping×Technology Delphi×
분야Science Technology StudiesScience Technology Studies
계열Process / pipelineProcess / pipeline
기원 연도20041975
창시자Robert Phaal, Clare Farrukh, David Probert (Cambridge T-Plan); Motorola/Corning originsHelmer & Dalkey (RAND); national applications by NISTEP (Japan) and Cuhls (Germany)
유형Time-based strategic-planning processIterative structured expert-survey process
원전Phaal, R., Farrukh, C. J. P., & Probert, D. R. (2004). Technology roadmapping—a planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71(1-2), 5-26. DOI ↗Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. ISBN: 9780201042948
별칭Technology roadmaps, Strategic roadmapping, T-Plan roadmappingTechnology Delphi survey, Foresight Delphi, National Delphi forecast
관련44
요약Technology roadmapping is a strategic-planning technique that produces a time-based, multi-layered chart linking markets and business drivers, products and services, and the technologies and resources needed to deliver them. By laying these layers along a common timeline and drawing the links between them, a roadmap aligns research and development with strategy, answering where an organisation wants to go, how it will get there, and which technologies must mature and when.The technology Delphi is a large-scale, multi-round expert survey used to forecast the timing, importance, and feasibility of future technological developments. Built on the classic Delphi principles of anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback, and statistical aggregation, it elicits judgements from hundreds or thousands of experts on a structured list of technology statements and converges them, round by round, into a collective forecast that informs national and organisational science and technology priorities.
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