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구조적 분할 투다-야마모토 인과관계 검정×구조적 변동 VAR 모형×
분야계량경제학계량경제학
계열Regression modelRegression model
기원 연도1995 (base); structural break extensions widely adopted 2000s–2010s1980–1998
창시자Toda & Yamamoto (1995); structural break extensions by Zivot & Andrews (1992) and subsequent applied literatureBai & Perron (structural breaks); Sims (VAR framework)
유형Causality testMultivariate time series model with regime change
원전Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250. DOI ↗Bai, J., & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica, 66(1), 47–78. DOI ↗
별칭SB-TY causality, structural break modified Wald test causality, Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality, causality with regime shiftsVAR with structural breaks, break-point VAR, regime-switching VAR, SB-VAR
관련66
요약The structural break Toda-Yamamoto causality test extends the standard Toda-Yamamoto modified Wald (MWALD) procedure to accommodate one or more structural breaks in the time series. By identifying break dates first and then including dummy variables in the augmented VAR, the test maintains its valid asymptotic chi-squared distribution regardless of the integration or cointegration order of the variables, even in the presence of regime shifts.The Structural Break VAR model extends the standard Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework by allowing coefficient matrices and error covariance to shift at one or more unknown break dates. It is designed for multivariate time series where economic relationships change abruptly due to policy shifts, financial crises, or major structural events.
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