방법 비교

	확률적 마르코프 모형	몬테카를로 시뮬레이션
분야	시뮬레이션	의사결정
계열	Process / pipeline	MCDM
기원 연도	1993	1949
창시자	Markov, A. A. (probabilistic extension developed by Sonnenberg & Beck and others)	Metropolis, N., Ulam, S.
유형	Probabilistic state-transition model with Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation	Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation
원전	Sonnenberg, F. A., & Beck, J. R. (1993). Markov models in medical decision making: A practical guide. Medical Decision Making, 13(4), 322–338.	Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association
별칭	Probabilistic Markov Model, Stochastic Markov Chain, SMM, Monte Carlo Markov Model	—
관련	6	0
요약	A Stochastic Markov Model is a simulation technique that represents a system as a set of mutually exclusive health or decision states, moves a cohort (or individual agents) through those states using probabilistically sampled transition parameters, and aggregates outcomes across thousands of Monte Carlo iterations to produce full probability distributions over costs, outcomes, or rankings rather than single point estimates.	MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result.