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교육 연구에서의 인과관계 민감도 분석×시계열 단절 분석 (Interrupted Time Series, ITS)×
분야인과추론인과추론
계열Regression modelRegression model
기원 연도1983–20022002
창시자Paul R. Rosenbaum (formal framework); applied in education research by Briggs and othersWagner, Soumerai, Zhang & Ross-Degnan (segmented regression); Bernal, Cummins & Gasparrini (tutorial)
유형Causal robustness / bias assessmentQuasi-experimental segmented regression
원전Rosenbaum, P. R. (2002). Observational Studies (2nd ed.). Springer. ISBN: 978-0387989679Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355. DOI ↗
별칭Rosenbaum sensitivity analysis, hidden-bias sensitivity analysis, causal sensitivity analysis, SA for causal education studiesITS analysis, segmented regression of time series, Kesintili Zaman Serisi (ITS) Analizi
관련65
요약Sensitivity analysis for causality in education research tests how robust a quasi-experimental finding is to unmeasured confounding. Rather than assuming all bias has been removed, it quantifies how large a hidden bias would need to be to overturn a causal conclusion — a critical safeguard when randomisation is impossible, which is common in educational settings.Interrupted Time Series analysis is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the effect of a single, well-dated intervention by comparing the trajectory of an outcome before and after it occurs. Formalised as segmented regression by Wagner and colleagues (2002) and popularised as a public-health evaluation tutorial by Bernal, Cummins and Gasparrini (2017), it separates the intervention's impact into a change in level and a change in slope.
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