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강건 베이지안 모형 평균화×마르코프 연쇄 몬테카를로 (MCMC)×
분야베이지안베이지안
계열Bayesian methodsBayesian methods
기원 연도1999–2012
창시자Hoeting, Madigan, Raftery, Volinsky (BMA); robustness extensions by Ley & Steel and others
유형Bayesian model selection and averagingPosterior sampling algorithm
원전Hoeting, J. A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A. E., & Volinsky, C. T. (1999). Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial. Statistical Science, 14(4), 382–401. link ↗Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A. & Rubin, D. B. (2013). Bayesian Data Analysis (3rd ed.). CRC Press. ISBN: 978-1439840955
별칭robust BMA, outlier-robust BMA, robust model averaging, heavy-tailed BMAmarkov chain monte carlo, MCMC sampling, MCMC (Markov Zinciri Monte Carlo)
관련63
요약Robust Bayesian model averaging extends standard BMA by replacing sensitive conjugate priors with heavy-tailed or mixture priors (e.g., mixtures of g-priors), and optionally robust likelihoods, so that posterior model probabilities and averaged estimates remain stable when data contain outliers, influential observations, or when the prior on model parameters would otherwise dominate the results.Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a family of computational algorithms for sampling from complex probability distributions, most commonly the posterior distributions that arise in Bayesian inference. Rather than computing posteriors analytically — which is rarely possible for realistic models — MCMC constructs a Markov chain whose stationary distribution is the target posterior and draws dependent samples from it, enabling full probabilistic inference for virtually any model.
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