방법 비교

	정책 시나리오 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션	확률적 시나리오 분석
분야	시뮬레이션	시뮬레이션
계열	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
기원 연도	1990s–2000s	1955–1980s
창시자	Developed within health economics and policy modeling communities; foundational work by Briggs, Claxton, and Sculpher	Dantzig, G. B.; Birge, J. R.; and others in stochastic programming tradition
유형	Probabilistic scenario simulation	Probabilistic scenario enumeration and evaluation
원전	Briggs, A. H., Claxton, K., & Sculpher, M. J. (2006). Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780198526629	Birge, J. R., Louveaux, F. (2011). Introduction to Stochastic Programming (2nd ed.). Springer. ISBN: 9781461402374
별칭	PS-MCS, Policy MC Simulation, Scenario-Based Monte Carlo, Policy Uncertainty Simulation	Probabilistic Scenario Analysis, SSA, Stochastic What-If Analysis, Monte Carlo Scenario Analysis
관련	4	4
요약	Policy Scenario Monte Carlo Simulation combines pre-defined discrete policy scenarios with probabilistic Monte Carlo sampling to quantify uncertainty in outcomes across each scenario. Rather than evaluating a single stochastic model, analysts define two or more policy alternatives and run thousands of Monte Carlo iterations within each, producing probability distributions of outcomes that support evidence-based policy comparison.	Stochastic Scenario Analysis evaluates a system or decision across multiple explicitly defined scenarios, each assigned a probability of occurrence. Unlike deterministic scenario analysis, it propagates uncertainty through probability distributions and computes expected outcomes, variance, and risk metrics across the scenario space, giving decision-makers a structured view of what could happen and how likely each outcome is.