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정책 시나리오 이산 사건 시뮬레이션×이산 사건 시뮬레이션 (DES)×
분야시뮬레이션시뮬레이션
계열Process / pipelineProcess / pipeline
기원 연도1960s–1990s1960s (formalized); modern computational form from 1970s onward
창시자Tocher, K. D. and Gordon, G. (early DES); policy scenario extension emerged through operations research and health policy modeling communitiesBanks, Carson, Nelson & Nicol (textbook lineage); foundational work by Tocher & Conway (1960s)
유형Simulation-based policy evaluationStochastic process simulation
원전Law, A. M. (2015). Simulation Modeling and Analysis (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education. ISBN: 9780073401324Banks, J., Carson, J.S., Nelson, B.L. & Nicol, D.M. (2010). Discrete-Event System Simulation (5th ed.). Pearson. ISBN: 978-0136062127
별칭Policy DES, Scenario-based DES, Policy simulation DES, DES policy analysisDES, event-driven simulation, Ayrık Olay Simülasyonu (DES)
관련54
요약Policy Scenario Discrete-Event Simulation combines the event-by-event fidelity of Discrete-Event Simulation with systematic policy scenario analysis to evaluate how different interventions, regulations, or resource allocations change system performance. By running multiple well-defined policy scenarios through the same DES model, analysts can compare outcomes — throughput, waiting times, costs — across alternatives before real-world implementation.Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) is a computational modeling paradigm in which the state of a system changes only at a countable sequence of points in time — the events. Between events nothing changes, so the simulation clock jumps directly from one event to the next. Formalized through the foundational textbooks of Banks, Carson, Nelson and Nicol and of Law in the 1960s–2000s, DES has become the standard tool for analyzing queuing systems, healthcare patient flows, manufacturing lines, and logistics networks where entities move through resources over time.
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