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Policy Scenario Agent-Based Modeling×정책 시나리오 시스템 다이내믹스×
분야시뮬레이션시뮬레이션
계열Process / pipelineProcess / pipeline
기원 연도1990s–2000s1960s–1990s
창시자Axelrod, R. and colleagues in computational social scienceForrester, J. W. (system dynamics); scenario integration formalized by Sterman and others
유형Simulation-based policy comparisonSimulation-based policy analysis
원전Axelrod, R. (1997). The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration. Princeton University Press. ISBN: 9780691015675Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 9780072389159
별칭Policy ABM, Policy Scenario ABM, Scenario-Based ABM, PS-ABMPSSD, Policy SD Simulation, Scenario-Based System Dynamics, Policy Systems Modeling
관련55
요약Policy Scenario Agent-Based Modeling (PS-ABM) is a simulation method that uses agent-based models to evaluate and compare multiple policy scenarios. Heterogeneous autonomous agents interact under different policy regimes, and emergent system-level outcomes are compared across scenarios to inform evidence-based policy decisions. It is widely used in public health, urban planning, economics, and social policy research.Policy Scenario System Dynamics combines system dynamics modeling with structured scenario analysis to evaluate how different policy interventions affect complex, feedback-driven systems over time. By running multiple policy scenarios through a calibrated stock-and-flow model, analysts can compare long-run outcomes, identify leverage points, and anticipate unintended consequences before real-world implementation.
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