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비선형 구조 벡터 자기회귀 (NL-SVAR) 모형×비선형 ARDL(NARDL) 모형×
분야계량경제학계량경제학
계열Regression modelRegression model
기원 연도1990s–2010s2014
창시자Extensions by Koop, Potter, Auerbach, Gorodnichenko and othersShin, Yu & Greenwood-Nimmo
유형Multivariate nonlinear structural time series modelNonlinear cointegration model
원전Koop, G., & Korobilis, D. (2010). Bayesian multivariate time series methods for empirical macroeconomics. Foundations and Trends in Econometrics, 3(4), 267–358. DOI ↗Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In R. C. Sickles & W. C. Horrace (Eds.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications (pp. 281–314). Springer. link ↗
별칭nonlinear structural VAR, NL-SVAR, threshold SVAR, regime-switching SVARNARDL, nonlinear bounds test, asymmetric ARDL, asymmetric cointegration model
관련65
요약The Nonlinear Structural VAR model extends the standard SVAR framework to allow structural relationships and dynamic responses to vary across economic regimes or states of the world. By imposing nonlinear transition mechanisms — such as threshold switching or smooth regime change — it captures asymmetric responses to shocks that a linear SVAR cannot detect.The Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model extends the linear ARDL bounds-testing framework to allow asymmetric long-run and short-run relationships. By decomposing the regressor into cumulative positive and negative partial sums, it tests whether increases and decreases in a variable exert different effects on the outcome — a feature especially relevant in financial and energy economics where positive and negative shocks rarely cancel out symmetrically.
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