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비선형 ARIMA 모형×Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model×
분야계량경제학계량경제학
계열Regression modelRegression model
기원 연도1978-19942005
창시자Howell Tong (SETAR/TAR framework); Timo Terasvirta (STAR extensions)Lütkepohl (textbook treatment); Sims (1980) macroeconometric tradition
유형Nonlinear time series modelMultivariate time-series model
원전Tong, H. (1990). Non-Linear Time Series: A Dynamical System Approach. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780198522249Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer. DOI ↗
별칭nonlinear ARIMA, NARIMA, nonlinear time series model, nonlinear Box-Jenkins modelvector autoregression, VAR, VAR Modeli (Vektör Otoregresyon), vektör otoregresyon
관련34
요약The Nonlinear ARIMA model extends the classical Box-Jenkins ARIMA framework by allowing the conditional mean of a time series to depend on past values and past errors through a nonlinear function. It encompasses families such as Threshold AR (TAR/SETAR), Smooth Transition AR (STAR/LSTAR/ESTAR), and Markov-switching models, capturing asymmetric dynamics, regime changes, and business-cycle asymmetries that linear ARIMA cannot represent.Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model that treats several interdependent series symmetrically, letting each variable depend on its own past values and the past values of all the others. It is the standard tool for capturing mutual causality and joint dynamics, developed in the modern multiple-time-series tradition treated by Lütkepohl (2005).
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