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MIDAS 회귀: 혼합 데이터 빈도에 걸친 예측×동적 요인 모형×
분야계량경제학계량경제학
계열Regression modelRegression model
기원 연도20072002
창시자Eric Ghysels, Arthur Sinko & Rossen ValkanovJames Stock & Mark Watson
유형Parametric mixed-frequency forecasting modelLatent-factor time-series model
원전Ghysels, E., Sinko, A., & Valkanov, R. (2007). MIDAS regressions: Further results and new directions. Econometric Reviews, 26(1), 53–90. DOI ↗Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2002). Macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(2), 147–162. DOI ↗
별칭Mixed Frequency Regression, Mixed Data Sampling Model, High-Frequency Forecasting Regression, MIDAS RegresyonuDiffusion Index Model, Large-Scale Factor Model, Approximate Factor Model, Dinamik Faktör Modeli
관련32
요약MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) Regression is an econometric framework that directly incorporates high-frequency predictors into models for lower-frequency outcome variables without requiring temporal aggregation of the regressors. Introduced by Eric Ghysels, Arthur Sinko, and Rossen Valkanov in 2007, MIDAS uses parsimoniously parameterized lag polynomials — such as the Beta or Exponential Almon weighting schemes — to summarize the information content of many high-frequency lags while avoiding parameter proliferation.A Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) extracts a small number of latent common factors from a large panel of economic time series and uses those factors to forecast or nowcast a target variable. Formalized for macroeconomic forecasting by James Stock and Mark Watson in their 2002 Journal of Business & Economic Statistics paper, DFMs handle hundreds of indicators simultaneously while avoiding the curse of dimensionality that plagues traditional multivariate models.
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