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시계열 단절 분석 (Interrupted Time Series, ITS)×프로그램 평가×
분야인과추론현장 조사법
계열Regression modelProcess / pipeline
기원 연도20021960s–1970s (Scriven 1967; Stufflebeam CIPP model 1971)
창시자Wagner, Soumerai, Zhang & Ross-Degnan (segmented regression); Bernal, Cummins & Gasparrini (tutorial)Michael Scriven; Daniel Stufflebeam; Peter Rossi
유형Quasi-experimental segmented regressionApplied evaluation methodology
원전Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355. DOI ↗Rossi, P. H., Lipsey, M. W., & Freeman, H. E. (2004). Evaluation: A Systematic Approach (7th ed.). Sage. ISBN: 978-0761908944
별칭ITS analysis, segmented regression of time series, Kesintili Zaman Serisi (ITS) Analizievaluation research, program assessment, educational evaluation, systematic program evaluation
관련53
요약Interrupted Time Series analysis is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the effect of a single, well-dated intervention by comparing the trajectory of an outcome before and after it occurs. Formalised as segmented regression by Wagner and colleagues (2002) and popularised as a public-health evaluation tutorial by Bernal, Cummins and Gasparrini (2017), it separates the intervention's impact into a change in level and a change in slope.Program evaluation is a systematic, empirically grounded process of collecting and analyzing information about a program to determine its merit, worth, or significance. Applied across education, public health, social services, and policy, it addresses questions such as whether a program is reaching its target population, whether it is being implemented as designed, and whether it is producing the intended outcomes. It draws on both quantitative and qualitative methods and serves accountability, improvement, or knowledge-generation purposes.
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