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Technology Delphi×Technology Roadmapping×
분야Science Technology StudiesScience Technology Studies
계열Process / pipelineProcess / pipeline
기원 연도19752004
창시자Helmer & Dalkey (RAND); national applications by NISTEP (Japan) and Cuhls (Germany)Robert Phaal, Clare Farrukh, David Probert (Cambridge T-Plan); Motorola/Corning origins
유형Iterative structured expert-survey processTime-based strategic-planning process
원전Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. ISBN: 9780201042948Phaal, R., Farrukh, C. J. P., & Probert, D. R. (2004). Technology roadmapping—a planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71(1-2), 5-26. DOI ↗
별칭Technology Delphi survey, Foresight Delphi, National Delphi forecastTechnology roadmaps, Strategic roadmapping, T-Plan roadmapping
관련44
요약The technology Delphi is a large-scale, multi-round expert survey used to forecast the timing, importance, and feasibility of future technological developments. Built on the classic Delphi principles of anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback, and statistical aggregation, it elicits judgements from hundreds or thousands of experts on a structured list of technology statements and converges them, round by round, into a collective forecast that informs national and organisational science and technology priorities.Technology roadmapping is a strategic-planning technique that produces a time-based, multi-layered chart linking markets and business drivers, products and services, and the technologies and resources needed to deliver them. By laying these layers along a common timeline and drawing the links between them, a roadmap aligns research and development with strategy, answering where an organisation wants to go, how it will get there, and which technologies must mature and when.
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