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보너스-말루스 시스템×음이항 회귀×
분야보험계리학계량경제학
계열Regression modelRegression model
기원 연도19952011
창시자Jean LemaireHilbe (textbook treatment); generalized linear model framework
유형Actuarial experience-rating modelGeneralized linear model for count data
원전Lemaire, J. (1995). Bonus-Malus Systems in Automobile Insurance. Kluwer Academic Publishers. ISBN: 978-0-7923-9545-5Hilbe, J. M. (2011). Negative Binomial Regression (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press. DOI ↗
별칭No-Claim Discount System, Merit Rating System, Experience Rating in Automobile Insurance, Prim-Ceza SistemiNB regression, NB2 regression, negatif binom regresyonu
관련24
요약A Bonus-Malus System (BMS) is an actuarial experience-rating mechanism used primarily in automobile insurance to adjust individual policyholders' premiums based on their personal claim history. Policyholders who remain claim-free receive premium discounts (bonus), while those who file claims are penalised with surcharges (malus). The framework was comprehensively formalised and analysed by Jean Lemaire in his landmark 1995 monograph, which remains the definitive reference for the design and evaluation of such systems worldwide.Negative Binomial Regression is a generalized linear model for count outcomes that extends Poisson regression to handle overdispersion, where the variance of the counts exceeds their mean. Developed in the GLM tradition and treated in depth by Hilbe (2011), it adds a dispersion parameter so that inference stays valid when Poisson would understate the spread of the data.
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